The following policy possibilities have been derived largely from Trump’s statements.
Housing. “We’re going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction,” the real estate magnate announced on Aug. 15 at a news conference. “We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.” He also called for dropping interest rates back to those before the COVID-19 pandemic. That could set up a clash with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, who has a year left in office.
CBS News reported Dec. 16 the Fed is expected to make its third consecutive rate cut on Dec. 18. But that might not be enough for Trump. The Fed also will be cautious because inflation ticked up to 2.7% in November. And Trump’s tariffs and deportations could raise costs for many goods.
Homelessness. As the new head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Trump appointed former NFL player Scott Turner, who in the first term was the executive director of the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council. In an April policy announcement, Trump called for banning homeless encampments. “Violators of these bans will be arrested, but they will be given the option to accept treatment and services if they’re willing to be rehabilitated,” he said. “Many of them don’t want that. But we’ll give them the option….
“We will then open up large parcels of inexpensive land, bring in doctors, psychiatrists, social workers, and drug rehab specialists and create tent cities where the homeless can be relocated and their problems identified. But we’ll open up our cities again, make them livable and make them beautiful.”
For a party dedicated to federalist decentralization, this is a lot of centralized policy making. Then again, the cities and counties take the federal money. As the old libertarian saying has it: Who pays the piper calls the tune.
Education. Federal funding for K-12 schools also varies by state and district. For California, according to a November 2024 Fact Sheet by the Public Policy Institute of California, “In most non-recession years before the pandemic, the federal share ranged from 6% to 9%.” COVID 19 goosed that to 23% for fiscal year 2020-21. Then it fell back to 11% in 2021-22.
Throughout his campaign, Trump called for abolishing the federal Department of Education because he claims it’s infected with “radical zealots and Marxists” pushing “wokeness” and “left-wing indoctrination.” He promised on Inauguration Day he would deny federal funds to “any school pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity, and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content on our children.”
President Ronald Reagan also promised to abolish the department, but was stymied by Congress and gave his attention to other priorities. Since the Gipper became president in 1981, its $14 billion annual budget has mushroomed 17-fold to $238 billion in 2014. Trump’s appointee as education secretary, former WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) executive Linda McMahon, is going to have a hard time wrestling any reforms through this gigantic bureaucracy.
Immigration. A major Trump campaign plank was to seal the border with Mexico and begin deportations of those here illegally. This policy is the major spark for states led by Democrats to insist they will resist Trump, for example by continuing state and sanctuary policies. On Nov. 19 the Los Angeles City Council enacted a “sanctuary city” ordinance banning any cooperation with Trump enforcement policies.
At the state level, Gov. Gavin Newsom convened a Special Session of the California Legislature for a $25 million legal fund to fight Trump on immigration and other policies. Such resistance could prompt immigrants from Republican cities and states to flee to Democratic sanctuaries, worsening housing shortages. Immigration looks to be a classic clash over federal power, with numerous lawsuits clogging court dockets.
Environmental and other regulations. Trump plans to slash many regulations. But he promised Lee Zeldin, his appointment to head the EPA, would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions” and “set new standards on environmental review” to allow “healthy and well-structured” growth. But Trump’s call to end $7,500 electric vehicle tax rebates sets up a fight with Newsom, who retorted he would restore similar state rebates that expired last year. But not included will be the Teslas made by Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk.
Crime. In addition to the mass deportations, according to an ACLU summary, Trump said “his administration will accelerate mass incarceration efforts by directing federal prosecutors to seek the most serious charges and maximum sentences, pressuring local prosecutors to take a similarly draconian approach, and re-incarcerating thousands of people on home confinement.”
Ironically, voters already have taken things into their own hands. In California, they passed Proposition 36, which increased penalties for certain drug and theft crimes. And Los Angeles replaced progressive District Attorney George Gascón with former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman, who campaigned on getting tough on crime.
Elections have consequences. Given the centrality of federal policies, municipalities are going to have to adjust to those of the new federal boss as much as the election of a new local boss. Like it or not.
John Seiler is on the Editorial Board of the Southern California News Group and blogs at: johnseiler.substack.com.
