Looming ‘enrollment cliff’ for high school graduates threatens future of higher education

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Analysts say it’s essential for struggling colleges in those states to work with high schools to improve their application pipelines and with employers to improve job prospects. They noted that Hispanic students are less likely than others to attend college and that rising education costs have discouraged many high school graduates from applying to four-year programs in recent years.

“While colleges cannot control birth rates, they can influence K-12 education to better prepare the shrinking number of high school graduates for college,” said Lance Izumi, a past president of the Board of Governors of the California Community Colleges and analyst at the free-market Pacific Research Institute.

U.S. high schools will graduate a record 3.9 million students in 2025 before entering a long decline that threatens the future of higher education, a report shows.

In findings published Wednesday, the nonprofit Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projected the headcount of public and private high school graduates will fall by more than half a million — or 13% — to less than 3.4 million by 2041, reversing decades of growth. That’s slightly above the 2009 tally of 3.3 million graduates.

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