The Trump effect
Fresh off a decisive re-election victory, President-elect Donald Trump is dominating U.S. politics. Surprisingly, he is also dominating California politics despite the fact that he is broadly unpopular in the state – though much less so than his first term as evidenced by his gaining nearly 5 percentage points in 2024 compared with his 2020 total and his flipping several blue counties in the state to red.
Newsom is already framing his upcoming State of the State address and 2025 budget proposal in terms of the incoming administration, and the potential loss of federal funding for the state once Trump takes the helm. The already-declared special session of the Legislature to “Trump-proof California” is just the tip of the iceberg. On issues such as sanctuary policies and immigration, electric vehicle and other green mandates, California’s “water wars” and more, expect many clashes between the Trump administration and Newsom’s team.
How much will Newsom actually be in California governing?
Since the November election, when his presidential ambitions were revived with the massive defeat of Kamala Harris, Newsom has been setting himself up as the nation’s number one foil to Trump. One could argue that doing so carries a lot of risk for Newsom’s 2028 presidential ambitions as the election results were as much as rejection of Newsom’s “California Way” as much as they were of candidate Harris.
With his book release scheduled for this spring, it begs the questions – how much time will Newsom actually spend governing in California this year? His abrupt departure from the state last July for a campaign trip essentially sunk his priority to put an alternative to Prop. 36 on the November ballot. Now lawmakers and all Californians are wondering if we should get used to Newsom being an AWOL governor this year.
Will lawmakers finally seize back their prerogatives?
The California Air Resources Board’s November vote to revise the Low Carbon Fuel Standard – effectively setting the stage for a 76-cent-per-gallon gas tax increase was met with howls of protest by lawmakers from both parties. Following on the heels of last year’s controversial electric rate increase, which prompted emergency legislation to address, legislators are growing increasingly frustrated by the actions of the state’s unaccountable bureaucratic agencies. However, lawmakers ceded this authority to these unaccountable bodies in the first place. Following these two controversies, growing voter frustration about rising cost of living brought by liberal legislation, the loss of Democratic legislative seats, will 2025 finally be the year that lawmakers seize back power form these unelected bureaucrats?
How much of a lame duck is Gavin Newsom?
With the clock ticking on Newsom’s governorship, how much will Democrat legislators, who have moved another notch to the left after the election, be in lock step with Newsom on his tax and spending priorities? Governors typically dominate budget discussions, but will legislative liberals try and flex their muscles over a lame duck Newsom and push for more spending? Will their agenda fall in line with Newsom’s as he charts a 2028 campaign – or will they frustrate him by forcing him to act on controversial measures that could complicate his future campaign?
How will Sacramento Democrats respond to the November election?
Democrats received some black eyes in the November election in California. They were rebuffed on retail theft with the overwhelming approval of Prop. 36. They were rejected on reparations with the defeat of Prop. 6. Worse, voter displeasure with Newsom and Sacramento Democrats resulted in the party losing two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate. The big question for 2025 is how the ruling party will respond – will they double down on liberal priorities that proved unpopular with voters, or will they moderate their stances to truly lower the cost of living and improve quality of life?
Tim Anaya is the Pacific Research Institute’s vice president of marketing and communications and co-author (with Kerry Jackson) of The California Left Coast Survivor’s Guide.
