Officials reported a 29% decrease in overall homelessness in 2024 compared to 2022. But this coincides with a change in methodology in how people were counted, as well as a discrepancy between the count and what local nonprofits are finding on the ground. And one year does not make a trend.
As a recent newspaper headline asked, “[A]re the results ‘outstanding’ or ‘unbelievable’?” It’s hard to answer, but for now the numbers offer some hopeful news.
Homelessness drops
The overall number of homeless people on a single night in the city in January dropped by nearly a third, or 2,663 in real numbers. Even more notable was the decline in the number of unsheltered homeless, which was 41%. Sheltered homeless, by contrast, actually increased 2%.
The increase in sheltered homeless is not entirely surprising. More beds were available compared to previous years, while it’s also reasonable to assume at least some of the people in the unsheltered count shifted over to the sheltered population.
“These results are truly outstanding and, undeniably, reflect Sacramento’s City and County ‘all in’ approach to addressing this crisis,” said Lisa Bates, CEO of Sacramento Steps Forward, the organization that managed the point-in-time count.
Around pre-COVID levels
While the recent decline is good, the number of homeless in the Sacramento area is actually 19% higher than pre-COVID levels, which in real terms comes to about 44 more people experiencing unsheltered homelessness and just over 1,000 people experiencing sheltered homelessness – all of which illustrates the significance of the COVID spike in homelessness.
There could be many practical economic and mental-health-related reasons why homelessness spiked during COVID. But one of the reasons for the reduction since then was highlighted by Sacramento Steps Forward: the effect of rent.
According to Trent Simmons, the author of the group’s 2024 point-in-time report, rental and vacancy rates are a significant predictor of homelessness. Both measures have improved since 2022.
Other factors
In addition to improved housing costs and access to housing, Sacramento officials are pinning the reduction in homelessness on tens of millions of dollars spent on additional emergency shelter beds, permanent supportive housing units and a better, more coordinated response to homelessness by local agencies and stakeholders.
Is this approach enough to continue to reduce homelessness in the area and serve as a model for others? According to Wayne Winegarden, an economist who has studied the issue for the Pacific Research Institute, it is likely too soon to tell.
As Winegarden notes, it will take at least another year to show if this year’s progress is a blip or a trend, although he applauded the results nonetheless. “The number of unsheltered and sheltered homeless in California is too large, so any progress is welcome,” Winegarden said, adding that “sustainably driving down the numbers of homeless individuals should be the goal.”
According to Winegarden, spending significant sums on government programs is likely to have some effect, though an emphasis on market-based solutions and addressing the root causes of homelessness are likely to lead to a more-sustainable approach.
Reasons for skepticism
Even though the raw numbers show a dramatic decline in the homeless population, the change in methodology makes it difficult to accurately compare this year to prior years.
However, according to Simmons of Sacramento Steps Forward, the change in methodology was “operational, not statistical” and merely a change in how communities were organized and reached. He added that the U.S. Census Bureau has not standardized any particular methodology.
There are also discrepancies between what the numbers suggest and what groups who serve the homeless community are reporting. According to the Los Angeles Times, local nonprofit Loaves and Fishes said it had noticed a 6.4% increase in the number of homeless people coming through its doors from 2022 to 2023, and a 21% increase in the number of meals served – with the numbers expected to rise even more this year.
In a statement to the Times, Loaves and Fishes said: “These numbers are incredibly difficult to believe and further highlight the trust issues with local government that our guests have consistently expressed over our many years of service. All campus programs have reported serving more guests daily than last year.”
The disparities continue. As Sacramento Steps Forward reports, Sacramento’s results are similar to many counties in the San Francisco Bay Area that showed declines. However, homelessness in California as a whole increased from 2022 to 2023, as did that of the United States, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
Again, it will be at least another year when the next count comes out before anyone can begin to resolve these discrepancies. But for now, the positive results in Sacramento County are just that: positive.
Matt Fleming is opinion columnist for the Southern California News Group and CEO of Sower Strategies, a digital marketing and public affairs firm.
